Kerry, I enjoyed reading your analysis and concur with most of your points. However, I have a funny feeling that we should expect the unexpected in a presidential election season that’s unprecedented in our nation’s history on myriad ways—including the age of the leading candidates, and the four pending criminal lawsuits against one of those candidates.
Moreover, we are also in a period in which Americans appear to be more divided and tribalistic than at any time since the Civil War. Add to the that the trend of fringe political violence, a A Republican House of Reps controlled by Trump, in addition to the unprecedented new and evolving technology that will undoubtedly impact the current campaign due to bad actors at home and abroad—from AI deep fakes videos to fake candidate robocalls, etc.
In essence, there are so many fluid variables in the mix that I believe if something is unlikely to occur, then this is the year it will happen due to the current fluidity of the aforementioned factors.
Lastly, I would just note that the presumptive presidential nominees are just that, presumptive until officially voted on by the state delegations during the party’s respective national conventions this summer. Therefore, to apply a famous baseball quote to the sport of politics, “It ain’t over ‘till it’s over,” as Yogi Berra has said.
To continue the baseball analogy, we are still in the early innings of a nine inning game, which might even go into extra innings at the end. It will be most interesting to watch how this all plays out. Certainly, it would’ve been ideal if Biden had quit the race earlier and cleared the field for a competitive primary season, but I have a gut feeling that anything that can happen in this year’s presidential election is more likely to happen, for better or worse. Let’s hope and pray for the best outcome for America.